Semi-finished product · Food ingredients
Butter
One kilogram of butter from cow's milk
This page shows what the product is made of and where each figure comes from. It does not show a death toll. The toll is calculated from this list of materials, and will be published only once it has a range and the model has passed its test on past years.
Butter from whole cow's milk at France's extraction rate, 4.6 kg of butter per 100 kg of milk. Milk is not in the materials register — livestock there is meat — so the milk is carried as an unregistered input: its mass is counted and its farming reaches no harm yet. That gap is why the grade is LOW.
- Overall grade — low
- Status — draft
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The human cost, per item
One item is one kilogram of butter from cow's milk. Scenario Arms and resources, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.
Deaths
5.6 × 10⁻⁸ per item(0.24–1.3 × 10⁻⁷)LOWS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
The product’s list of materials traces 100% of its weight to raw materials the model knows. The rest carries no harm in this method, which is why this method gives a floor.
Injuries
1.1 × 10⁻⁶ per item(0.48–2.4 × 10⁻⁶)LOWS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
The product’s list of materials traces 100% of its weight to raw materials the model knows. The rest carries no harm in this method, which is why this method gives a floor.
Deaths and injuries at work in these figures come from the 53 countries that reported work deaths and the 52 that reported work injuries for 2023.
Harm at work is counted as each country reports it to the UN’s labour statistics (ILOSTAT), and never estimated for a country that did not report: such a country is missing from that year, not counted as zero. So when two years’ figures differ, part of the difference can be a change in which countries reported. The model’s own year-to-year checks compare only countries that reported in both years.
Deaths: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Rep., Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkiye, Turkmenistan, United States, Uzbekistan
Injuries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkiye, Turkmenistan, United States, Uzbekistan
The money method — per €1,000 spent
- Deaths — 1.1 × 10⁻⁶ per €1,000 spent in its industry(0.74–1.7 × 10⁻⁶)MEDIUMS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
- Injuries — 1.9 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(1.3–2.8 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-ARMS · run 2179 · methodology v0.1 · data dv-20261007-44r
Two methods, never added together. The materials method counts only what the product’s list of materials reaches, so it is a floor. The money method counts the whole supply chain of the industry for each euro spent, so in principle it misses nothing — but it cannot see what this particular product is made of.
In human terms
One death for every 7.7 million – 42 million items.
By the money method, about €590 million – €1.4 billion of spending in its industry for each death.
Rounded so that it stays within the range, so the sentence never claims more than the range does.
Under each scenario
Five answers to how much of the harm counted in a place is linked to its economy. Same product, same year, same trade table: only the rule for linking harm to the economy changes.
- S-MAX Economic-embedded
- S-EVID Evidence-weighted
- S-RES Resource-only
- S-ARMS Arms and resources
- S-CONS Conservative
Where it comes from
By raw material — the materials method
By industry — the money method
Where the harm was counted
Every material, in full
| Material | Share | Deaths per item |
|---|---|---|
| Milk | 100% | 5.6 × 10⁻⁸ |
The chain, step by step
The largest step at each stage of the model. Each links to the full account, where every stage adds up to the headline figure.
- Butter
- Milk 100% of the figure
- Ukraine 59% of the figure
- Conflict and political violence 91% of the figure
- Russia - Ukraine 59% of the figure
Sources behind this figure
Every data file that went into this figure in this calculation, with the credit its licence asks for.
- CEPII, BACI — Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII Working Paper 2010-23. CEPII did not endorse these derived figures — HS92_V202601-20260130, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/data/BACI_HS92_V202601.zip. Licensed under Open Licence 2.0 (Licence Ouverte, Etalab) (https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf).
- Eurostat, Euro/ECU exchange rates - annual data (ert_bil_eur_a) — ert_bil_eur_a-USD-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/ert_bil_eur_a/A.AVG.NAC.USD?format=SDMX-CSV&startPeriod=1995. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-fatal-20260910, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_02?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_02?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-non_fatal-20260910, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_01?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, European Commission — esaw-non_fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/hsw_n2_01?format=SDMX-CSV. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, FIGARO inter-country input-output tables — ii1-20260718, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/naio_10_fcp_ii1?format=SDMX-CSV&compressed=true. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, FIGARO inter-country input-output tables — ii2-20260718, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/naio_10_fcp_ii2?format=SDMX-CSV&compressed=true. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, FIGARO inter-country input-output tables — ii3-20260718, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/naio_10_fcp_ii3?format=SDMX-CSV&compressed=true. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Eurostat, FIGARO inter-country input-output tables — ii4-20260720, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/sdmx/2.1/data/naio_10_fcp_ii4?format=SDMX-CSV&compressed=true. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- FAO. AQUASTAT, FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture: municipal water withdrawal. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — ds-20260713, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://api.data.apps.fao.org/api/v2/bigquery. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — fo-20260109, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Forestry_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — qcl-20251231, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rfb-20260730, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_FertilizersProduct_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT. Licence: CC-BY-4.0. FAO endorsement of these derived figures is neither stated nor implied — rl-20261002, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Inputs_LandUse_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- Information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — arms-register-1950-2025, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://atbackend.sipri.org/api/p/trades/trade-register-csv/. Used under SIPRI terms and conditions — fair-use policy; see https://www.sipri.org/about/terms-and-conditions.
- Information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — milex-1949-2025-v1.2, retrieved 2026-09-29 from https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/SIPRI-Milex-data-1949-2025_v1.2.xlsx. Used under SIPRI terms and conditions — fair-use policy; see https://www.sipri.org/about/terms-and-conditions.
- International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — emp-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB,1.0/.A..SEX_T.. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — emp-20261007, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB,1.0/.A..SEX_T.. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_FATL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT. The ILO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures; responsibility for them rests solely with Quiescence — non_fatal-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_INJ_NFTL_ECO_NB,1.0/all. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- OECD. (2025) OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables, https://oe.cd/icio — 1995-2000_SML-20260112, retrieved 2026-09-22 from https://webfs-sti.oecd.org/files/STI-PIE/ICIO/2025/1995-2000_SML.zip. Used under OECD Terms and Conditions — section 3, Data; see https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html.
- OECD. (2025) OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables, https://oe.cd/icio — 2001-2005_SML-20260112, retrieved 2026-09-22 from https://webfs-sti.oecd.org/files/STI-PIE/ICIO/2025/2001-2005_SML.zip. Used under OECD Terms and Conditions — section 3, Data; see https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html.
- OECD. (2025) OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables, https://oe.cd/icio — 2006-2010_SML-20260112, retrieved 2026-09-22 from https://webfs-sti.oecd.org/files/STI-PIE/ICIO/2025/2006-2010_SML.zip. Used under OECD Terms and Conditions — section 3, Data; see https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html.
- OECD. (2025) OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables, https://oe.cd/icio — 2011-2015_SML-20260112, retrieved 2026-09-22 from https://webfs-sti.oecd.org/files/STI-PIE/ICIO/2025/2011-2015_SML.zip. Used under OECD Terms and Conditions — section 3, Data; see https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html.
- OECD. (2025) OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables, https://oe.cd/icio — 2016-2022_SML-20260112, retrieved 2026-09-22 from https://webfs-sti.oecd.org/files/STI-PIE/ICIO/2025/2016-2022_SML.zip. Used under OECD Terms and Conditions — section 3, Data; see https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html.
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics — intl-20261003, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://www.eia.gov/opendata/bulk/INTL.zip. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (EIA Copyrights and Reuse); see https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2012-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2012.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2013-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2013.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2014-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2014.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2015-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2015.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2016-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2016.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2017-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2017.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2018-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2018.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2019-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/atoms/files/mcs2019_all.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2020-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2021-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, Mineral Commodity Summaries — MCS2022-PDF, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022.pdf. Used under U.S. Government work — public domain (USGS Copyrights and Credits); see https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits.
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- Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University — Davies, Pettersson and Oberg, "Organized violence 1989-2025, and violent political protests", Journal of Peace Research (2026), doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag046 — ged-v26.1, retrieved 2026-09-10 from https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Data modified by HumanToll.
- World Health Organization, Global Health Estimates. WHO did not prepare, review or endorse these derived figures — wsh_10-20261006, retrieved 2026-10-06 from https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/WSH_10. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/). Data modified by HumanToll.
What this figure is not
Production phase only. Harm from using the product — driving the car, charging the phone — is not in this figure.
- A floor: harm that cannot be linked to the product is not counted, so the true figure is higher.
- Whatever the list of materials does not name, and harm the records do not hold, is missing from it — the traced share above says how much.
- Its confidence grade is low, judged from how wide the range is, how many steps the figure passed through, and how well its inputs are known.
Beside the most similar products
The two products whose deaths per kilogram are closest to this one’s, by the materials method.
Cite this figure
HumanToll 2026, run 2179, methodology v0.1. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/product/butter/
What it is made of
Each line is one part of one kilogram of butter from cow's milk: how much of it goes in, how much had to be produced to get that much (some is wasted along the way), and where the figure comes from.
| Component | Quantity | Source |
|---|---|---|
|
Milk
ingredient |
1.00 kg × 21.7 produced for it |
FAO Statistics Division, Technical Conversion Factors for Agricultural Commodities — nati…
· medium
France: butter of cow milk 4.6% of whole fresh milk (printed p. 545), so 1 / 0.046 kg of milk per kilogram Registered as the material `milk` on 2026-09-18, when FAO's Milk, Total production entered the register: this line reached no supply chain until then, and it is why a croissant traced 15%. |
Down to raw materials
The whole chain worked out — everything one kilogram of butter from cow's milk needs, through every product in between, with all the waste along the way included.
| Input | Per item |
|---|---|
| Milk | 21.7 kg |
An input marked “not in the register” is counted by weight but is not yet linked to any supply chain. Services such as transport appear as the euros, or tonnes carried a kilometre, that the list of materials gives them.
How much of it is known in detail
100% of this product’s weight is listed in detail in its own list of materials.
Its whole chain uses 21.7 kg of materials, waste included. 100% of that is raw materials the model knows — the part it can trace harm to — 0% is inputs not yet on the list, and 0% is an openly stated remainder.
In the table of what industries buy from each other it belongs to “Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products” (FIGARO industry C10-12).
In the table of what industries buy from each other it belongs to “Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products” (FIGARO industry C10T12).
What uses it
Products whose own list of materials includes this one.
- Croissant — 30.0 g in one butter croissant as made — 123 g of dough — with its 3 g of packaging