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The full breakdown

How the figure for NMC cathode powder is built

Every stage the model passes through, with its number. Each table below divides the same headline figure a different way, and each one adds up to it exactly — the page checks, and refuses to show a table that does not.

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The headline

One item is one kilogram of NMC532 cathode active material. Scenario Economic-embedded, using FIGARO 2023. Each figure is the middle result of 2,000 runs of the calculation, with the range that holds nine in ten of them beside it, and the grade that range earns.

Materials method — 7.5 × 10⁻⁶ per item(0.41–1.5 × 10⁻⁵)LOWS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Money method — 6.6 × 10⁻⁵ per €1,000 spent in its industry(4.4–9.8 × 10⁻⁵)MEDIUMS-MAX · run 2259 · methodology v1.0 · data dv-20261007-44r

Each step below is a middle estimate. The model works out a range for the whole figure, not for each step, so the range that applies to a step is the headline’s.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries

How much of each raw material is in one item, the deaths linked to each kilogram of it in this calculation, and the two multiplied together: its part of the headline figure.

1 · What it is made of, and what each material carries
MaterialPer itemDeaths per kgPart of the figureShare
Lithium7.2 × 10⁻⁵ t8.1 × 10⁻⁵5.8 × 10⁻⁶77%
Nickel3.1 × 10⁻⁴ t3.8 × 10⁻⁶1.2 × 10⁻⁶16%
Cobalt1.3 × 10⁻⁴ t4.0 × 10⁻⁶5.1 × 10⁻⁷6.8%
Manganese1.7 × 10⁻⁴ t4.2 × 10⁻⁸7.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁶

2 · Where the harm was counted

The same headline, by the country where the harm the materials carry was counted.

2 · Where the harm was counted
CountryPart of the figureShare
Australia2.7 × 10⁻⁶36%
Argentina2.1 × 10⁻⁶28%
Portugal8.6 × 10⁻⁷11%
Colombia6.3 × 10⁻⁷8.4%
Canada5.3 × 10⁻⁷7.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep.3.3 × 10⁻⁷4.4%
Turkiye1.4 × 10⁻⁷1.9%
Finland1.1 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
United States6.8 × 10⁻⁸0.90%
Philippines1.8 × 10⁻⁸0.24%
Mali1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Brazil9.3 × 10⁻⁹0.12%
Indonesia3.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Ukraine2.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Guatemala4.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Georgia3.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Papua New Guinea2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Russian Federation2.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Mexico2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Myanmar2.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Morocco3.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
South Africa2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Ghana6.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
India4.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
China4.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁶

3 · Through which kind of harm

The same headline, by kind of harm: war, work, poverty, pollution.

3 · Through which kind of harm
Kind of harmPart of the figureShare
Work7.1 × 10⁻⁶95%
Conflict and political violence3.8 × 10⁻⁷5.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁶

4 · Which wars

The war deaths in the headline, by war. Harm of any other kind is the row that names no war.

4 · Which wars
WarPart of the figureShare
Not placed7.1 × 10⁻⁶95%
IS - Civilians9.3 × 10⁻⁸1.2%
URDPC - Civilians5.9 × 10⁻⁸0.78%
Lengola - Mbole3.9 × 10⁻⁸0.52%
DR Congo (Zaire): Islamic State2.7 × 10⁻⁸0.36%
M23 - VDP1.7 × 10⁻⁸0.22%
Mobondo - Civilians1.6 × 10⁻⁸0.21%
DR Congo (Zaire): Government1.3 × 10⁻⁸0.18%
M23 - Civilians1.3 × 10⁻⁸0.17%
Rwanda: Government1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Philippines: Government1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Government of DR Congo (Zaire) - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻⁸0.14%
Government of Rwanda - Civilians6.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Philippines: Islamic State5.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
URDPC - Zaire self-defense group5.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Zaire self-defense group - Civilians4.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
VDP - Civilians4.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - URDPC3.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - Civilians3.4 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Mali: Government3.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Russia - Ukraine2.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - PCC2.7 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
AFC - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - CNPSC, FABB2.3 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Indonesia: West Papua2.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
IS - JNIM1.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Government of Mali - Civilians1.5 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Mali: Government/Azawad1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Colombia: Government1.2 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
JNIM - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
CPP - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
OPM - Civilians1.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Comando Vermelho9.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Cartel do Norte - Comando Vermelho8.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
AFP-Gutabara - FABB8.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FRPI - Civilians7.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCC6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - JNIM6.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Mali: Islamic State6.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Burundi: Government5.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
EGC - Civilians5.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - GDE4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Nova Okaida - Estados Unidos4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Basonge - Bena Nkoma (Bakwa Luntu, Luba)4.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
GDE, PCC - Sindicato do Crime4.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
PCC - Sindicato do Crime4.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Amigos Para Sempre - Família Terror Amapá4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FDLR-FOCA - Civilians3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FPIC Chambre noire sanduku - FRPI3.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Civilians3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Mayi Mayi Chini ya Tuna - Civilians3.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Ambulin, Lungupin, Nenei, Sau, Sau Walep, Yandamau, Yopo - Kaekin, Lanzerakin, Lyona, Mupapalu, Murap, Palinau, Sakaikin, Sikin, Wapukin2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FARC-EMC - Civilians2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
M18 - MS-132.6 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Government of Indonesia - Civilians2.5 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bonde dos 13, PCC - Comando Vermelho2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Comando Vermelho2.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
South Sudan: Government2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Luba - Batwa2.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FARC-EMC - ELN1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Government1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Holanda1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - JNIM1.7 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Philippines: Mindanao1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Government of Philippines - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Massa1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Nova Okaida - PCC1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
FARC - Segunda Marquetalia - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Katiara1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Bonde do Maluco - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
ELN - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Government1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Sinaloa Cartel9.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Los Costenos - Los Pepes9.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Dozos (Mali) - Civilians9.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - Civilians9.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
MS-13 - Civilians9.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
EGC - ELN, FARC-EMC9.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro9.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
EGC - ELN8.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
DR Congo (Zaire): Katanga7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Uganda - Civilians7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Burundi - Civilians7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Twiganeho - Civilians7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
AFC - VDP7.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
M18 - Civilians7.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
PCC - Civilians6.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Turkey: Kurdistan6.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Ajeita - Bonde do Maluco6.0 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Dan na Ambassagou - Civilians5.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Brazil - Civilians4.5 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
GATIA - IS4.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Anti-Bala - Bala na Cara4.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
EGC - Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada3.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Myanmar (Burma) - Civilians3.8 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Bonde dos 40 - PCM3.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara)3.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Colombia - Civilians3.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel2.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Juarez Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians2.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Kachin2.3 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
IS - MSA2.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Carteles Unidos - Jalisco Cartel New Generation1.9 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
CATA - Codeta1.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Comandos de la Frontera - Civilians1.4 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Karen1.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Caborca Cartel, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Government of South Africa - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Karenni9.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Russia: Islamic State8.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Costenos - Civilians7.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Kusasi - Mamprusi6.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Arakan5.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Cartel Independiente de Acapulco - Los Rusos, UPOEG4.9 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians4.3 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Amigos dos Amigos - Comando Vermelho3.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
FDN - PCC3.7 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Russia (Soviet Union): Chechnya3.6 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Kokang3.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos3.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Carteles Unidos, Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos2.8 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Tlacos2.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Zetas Vieja Escuela1.5 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
India: Kashmir1.4 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
PKK - Civilians1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
Kuki - Meitei1.2 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
India: Government1.1 × 10⁻¹²<0.1%
NUG - Civilians9.7 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
CPI-Maoist - Civilians4.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Los Rusos, UPOEG - Los Tlacos4.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Civilians3.9 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Pájaros Sierra3.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Government of Mexico - Civilians3.0 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Los Ardillos - Los Rojos2.6 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Los Zetas - Cártel del Noreste faction2.4 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Kashmir insurgents - Civilians2.2 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Myanmar (Burma): Shan1.3 × 10⁻¹³<0.1%
Hindus (India) - Muslims (India)9.2 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Sinaloa Cartel8.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Gulf Cartel - Jalisco Cartel New Generation8.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Government of India - Civilians8.0 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
ARSA - Civilians6.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India: Western South East Asia4.6 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
VHP - Civilians2.3 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Guerreros Unidos - Los Tlacos1.4 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India - Pakistan1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
India: Nagaland1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
NSCN-IM - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
PLFI - Civilians1.1 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total7.5 × 10⁻⁶= the headline figure, 7.5 × 10⁻⁶

5 · The money method: which industries

The figure per €1,000, by the industry where the harm happened, anywhere in the supply chain.

5 · The money method: which industries
IndustryPart of the figureShare
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products2.6 × 10⁻⁵40%
Mining and quarrying1.1 × 10⁻⁵16%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.1 × 10⁻⁶6.2%
Land transport and transport via pipelines2.7 × 10⁻⁶4.0%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation1.8 × 10⁻⁶2.7%
Security and investigation, service and landscape, office administrative and support activities1.7 × 10⁻⁶2.6%
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products1.7 × 10⁻⁶2.6%
Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities1.4 × 10⁻⁶2.2%
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles1.3 × 10⁻⁶2.0%
Rental and leasing activities1.0 × 10⁻⁶1.6%
Construction9.4 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Water transport8.6 × 10⁻⁷1.3%
Manufacture of basic metals7.6 × 10⁻⁷1.2%
Manufacture of food products; beverages and tobacco products6.9 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products6.7 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Sewerage, waste management, remediation activities6.7 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Employment activities6.4 × 10⁻⁷0.98%
Accommodation and food service activities5.6 × 10⁻⁷0.86%
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment4.5 × 10⁻⁷0.69%
Legal and accounting activities; activities of head offices; management consultancy activities4.4 × 10⁻⁷0.68%
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles4.2 × 10⁻⁷0.63%
Manufacture of paper and paper products3.8 × 10⁻⁷0.59%
Postal and courier activities3.7 × 10⁻⁷0.57%
Air transport3.3 × 10⁻⁷0.50%
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.3.2 × 10⁻⁷0.49%
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products2.8 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply2.3 × 10⁻⁷0.35%
Forestry and logging2.2 × 10⁻⁷0.34%
Human health activities2.0 × 10⁻⁷0.30%
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.30%
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.29%
Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.28%
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products1.8 × 10⁻⁷0.27%
Manufacture of electrical equipment1.7 × 10⁻⁷0.26%
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities1.4 × 10⁻⁷0.22%
Water collection, treatment and supply1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Advertising and market research1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.19%
Computer programming, consultancy, and information service activities1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.17%
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials1.1 × 10⁻⁷0.16%
Printing and reproduction of recorded media8.8 × 10⁻⁸0.13%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding8.2 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Manufacture of other transport equipment8.0 × 10⁻⁸0.12%
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing6.9 × 10⁻⁸0.11%
Activities of membership organisations6.7 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities6.6 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Real estate activities6.3 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Repair of computers and personal and household goods6.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities5.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Education5.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Telecommunications4.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Other personal service activities4.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Creative, arts and entertainment activities; libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities; gambling and betting activities4.0 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Residential care activities and social work activities without accommodation3.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security2.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities2.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Publishing activities2.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Motion picture, video, television programme production; programming and broadcasting activities1.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Scientific research and development1.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Fishing and aquaculture1.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use8.6 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Total6.6 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.6 × 10⁻⁵

6 · The money method: which countries

The figure per €1,000, by the country of the industry where the harm happened.

6 · The money method: which countries
CountryPart of the figureShare
Not placed1.6 × 10⁻⁵25%
Germany8.4 × 10⁻⁶13%
Turkiye6.4 × 10⁻⁶9.8%
United States5.7 × 10⁻⁶8.8%
Argentina5.1 × 10⁻⁶7.7%
Spain4.5 × 10⁻⁶6.9%
France4.3 × 10⁻⁶6.5%
Canada2.5 × 10⁻⁶3.8%
Italy2.1 × 10⁻⁶3.2%
Japan1.5 × 10⁻⁶2.4%
Netherlands1.1 × 10⁻⁶1.7%
Switzerland1.0 × 10⁻⁶1.5%
Portugal9.0 × 10⁻⁷1.4%
Belgium7.4 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Poland6.9 × 10⁻⁷1.1%
Australia6.7 × 10⁻⁷1.0%
Mexico6.4 × 10⁻⁷0.98%
Austria4.9 × 10⁻⁷0.75%
Czechia4.1 × 10⁻⁷0.63%
Finland3.0 × 10⁻⁷0.46%
Hungary2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Denmark2.7 × 10⁻⁷0.42%
Sweden2.5 × 10⁻⁷0.38%
Brazil1.9 × 10⁻⁷0.30%
Ireland1.5 × 10⁻⁷0.23%
Slovenia1.3 × 10⁻⁷0.20%
Norway9.7 × 10⁻⁸0.15%
Lithuania6.7 × 10⁻⁸0.10%
Slovak Republic5.7 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Estonia4.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Croatia3.6 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Greece3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Luxembourg3.4 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Russian Federation2.8 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Bulgaria2.2 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Latvia2.1 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Romania1.9 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
India1.5 × 10⁻⁸<0.1%
Indonesia9.0 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Malta4.9 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Cyprus3.8 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
Saudi Arabia1.1 × 10⁻⁹<0.1%
South Africa2.9 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
United Kingdom1.3 × 10⁻¹⁰<0.1%
China8.7 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Korea, Rep.3.2 × 10⁻¹¹<0.1%
Serbia4.7 × 10⁻¹⁴<0.1%
Total6.6 × 10⁻⁵= the headline figure, 6.6 × 10⁻⁵

What this trail does not show

Sources behind this figure

HumanToll 2026, run 2259, methodology v1.0. https://quiescence.eu/humantoll/explain/nmc-cathode/

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